Wednesday, June 25, 2014

Fwd: Buy When the Tanks Hit the Streets



---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Rude Awakening <rude@agorafinancial.com>
Date: Wed, Jun 25, 2014 at 7:00 AM
Subject: Buy When the Tanks Hit the Streets
To: iammejtm@gmail.com


You know how they say you should buy when there's blood in the streets?
Rude Awakening
June 25, 2014
 
 
Buy When the Tanks Hit the Streets
 
  • How to trade a Russian standoff
  • A cheap comeback play
  • Plus: How to play the energy pullback

 
Greg Guenthner coming to you from Baltimore, MD...

Greg Guenthner
Greg Guenthner
You know how they say you should buy when there's blood in the streets?

Well, you should also buy when the tanks hit the streets...

Just this morning, NATO's secretary general said there are "no signs" Russia is respecting its commitments over Ukraine, reports the Associated Press. No one really seems to know what to do about the situation--but media reports claim the cease-fire between the Ukraine and pro-Russian separatists could collapse soon.

The hysteria torpedoed Russian stocks earlier this year. Back in March, White House Press Secretary Jay Carney even told the American people that he wouldn't invest in Russian equities... unless he was selling short.

Of course, this reckless political posturing was the perfect secret buy signal for Russian stocks. Since Russian equities carved out a bottom in April, shares are up more than 24%. As of yesterday afternoon, the MICEX Index (which tracks the 50 largest and most liquid Russian stocks) had all but recovered from its late winter swoon...


Since March, Russia has become the market's ultimate contrarian play.

The Crimean crisis helped set the stage by making Russian equities dirt cheap. At the height of the crisis, the MICEX Index carried a trailing P/E ratio of just 4.30. As a reference point, the S&P 500's P/E clocks in at about 19.3.

So we have a play here that's cheap and has an intriguing chart that is ripping off its lows. During the height of the crisis, the Market Vectors Russia ETF Trust (NYSE:RSX) briefly dipped below its 2012 lows. However, Russian stocks have made a sharp recovery since March. And while plenty of uncertainty remains around how the standoff between Russia and the Ukraine will play out, patient traders who can handle the volatility stand to book substantial gains.

At this point, it's all about stomaching any wild swings RSX throws your way. I don't know how the situation between Russia and the Ukraine will play out. No one does. Any developments (positive or negative) are likely to temporarily swing shares.
 
 
 
 
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Rude Numbers
Targets, Predictions and Wild Guesses

 
-2.9% was this morning's final first-quarter GDP revision, well below the expected -1.8%. That's the worst reading since early 2009...
1,939 marks the spot for S&P futures after the disastrous GDP report hit the wire. Stocks are looking to open slightly lower this morning after fading from new highs yesterday afternoon...
$1,318 is where you'll find gold futures this morning. The yellow metal is off by about $3 in early trading after hitting a high of $1,326 Tuesday morning...
$106.17 buys a barrel of crude this morning. Oil continues to consolidate in a narrow range near its 2014 highs...
66% of all U.S. stocks trading on major exchanges finished the trading day in the red on Tuesday.
 
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Rude Trends
When to Buy... When to Sell

 
A few momentum stocks took a hit yesterday as the market leaked lower most of the afternoon.

No big deal--at least not yet. The market is overbought and probably needs a break. And one of the most overbought sectors right now is energy.

Yes, energy stocks finally pulled back yesterday. By the end of the day, the Energy Select SPDR had dropped more than 2%. But even if you're holding energy names in your portfolio right now, I think you'll be just fine sticking with them.

However, these stocks might need time to cool off before moving higher...

With the conflict in Iraq and oil prices in the news, it makes sense for these high-flying energy stocks to shake out some of the loose hands. Face it--these stocks are overbought right now and in need of a cool-down.

So if you're looking to add to your positions in this sector now, I think the best move would be to hold off for a bit. Let some of these stocks blow off some steam before hitting the "buy" button again...

[Ed. Note: Send your feedback here: rude@agorafinancial.com - and follow me on Twitter: @GregGuenthner]
 
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Ignore At Your Own Peril
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